DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4

Scenario Planning Frameworks

Scenario planning tools are objective measures used to construct tactical solutions (Tighe, 2019). Applied to forecast the future of an organization, effective scenario planning reveals the potential alteration of an environment over time. Moreover, to ensure that an organization develops alternative plans to avoid unexpected outcomes, scenario planning is essential. Four scenario-building tools were used to create a synthesis matrix. It is horizontally titled with four authors and vertically with main points. It should be mentioned that there are sources that do not cover all main points; thus, some cells will be blank. With this matrix, it is simple to fully compare the differences between the four frameworks in order to determine the best one to utilize to plan for the future of the pharmaceutical industry.

Part 1: Scenario Synthesis

Day & Schoemaker (2005)

Godet & Roubelat (1996)

Hussain et al. (2017)

Ramirez et al. (2017)

Synthesis Main Points

• Assembles your firm’s change needs by discovering and acknowledging their weak signals at the early stages.
• Screens and analyzes strategic possibilities by using four criteria: relevance, consistency, likelihood, and transparency.
• Screens and analyzes your firm’s previous limitations using road mapping and scenario planning.
• Instead of making predictions about your company’s future, examine their strengths and reframe their expectations.

Applying scenario planning for a company to consider options regarding the future of their company is not new. Scenario planning refers to the practice employed to determine and execute multiple various scenarios on company contingencies such that managerial decisions are smart. Whether it is by assessing your company’s needs by identifying their weaknesses in advance (Day & Schoemaker, 2005) or by identifying and assessing strategic options using criteria such as relevance, consistency, probability, and transparency (Godet & Roubelat, 1996), scenario planning is a technique that can be used for exploring and preparing for potentialities.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures 

Knowledge of the limitations of your company and employing road mapping (Hussain et al., 2017) is capable of best setting them up for efficiency during turbulence. Strategic planning can be achieved in many ways. Instead of concentrating on forward thinking about the future of your company, monitor your company’s strengths in order to rethink your assumptions (Ramirez et al., 2017). Lastly, there are two key elements of scenario planning: choosing a reasonable scenario and anticipating what can happen.

Understanding the Signals Early

Influences how your company vision should be worded by asking the right questions and learning from the past. Watch and do not disregard the warning signs. In today’s business, one must come to the “what ifs.” An organization can do this by reviewing its peripheral vision (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Another is through setting the critical variables and asking the right questions (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). A company can opt to create a roadmap rather than a scenario (Hussain et al., 2017). Rather than predicting the “what ifs,” a company can reframe its strategy by actively creating potential scenarios (Ramirez et al., 2017).

Strategic Scenario Planning

Examines the company’s needs and capability. After determining the scope, posing the right questions helps in establishing how to solve and guide the vision. It asks the right questions by generating critical variables and participating in workshops in the future. It involves experts working with the firm and returning with new ways of growing the firm and blends scenario planning and technology road mapping; by employing the two methods, it exposes weaknesses in application. Developing a hypothesis and posing the correct questions is an essential process in defining future thinking.

Strategic scenario planning is crucial for any company that wants to ride through numerous uncertainties (Ringland, 2010). For effective peripheral vision in scenario planning, the appropriate open-ended questions must be asked and the responses must be brief (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Furthermore, when it comes to the identification and assessment of strategic options, a company should hire experts to examine and return potential opportunities (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Steering clear of past mistakes by learning from them so as not to repeat them in the future (Hussain et al., 2017) and assessing weak signals by focusing on the plausible rather than the probable (Ramirez et al., 2017) are also employed as scenario planning techniques. Scenario Planning and Technology Road Mapping

Scenario Planning and Technology Road Mapping

Promotes road mapping and listing all your blind spots of the past, such as technology, political, and societal changes.

Uses scenario planning and technology road mapping and both methods’ strengths. Does not advocate for scenario planning but hypotheticals. The change in technology is overstated. Scenario planning and technology road mapping are fields to be investigated while planning for a company’s future, and they are both equally crucial. However, both are not always used jointly in scenario testing of assumptions. Some scenario planning welcomes road mapping technology (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). In addition to utilizing scenario planning, technology road mapping is utilized by some in an attempt to overcome their weak points (Hussain et al., 2017). While companies would think that the change in technology is overstated, rather than focusing on reframing and perception (Ramirez et al., 2017). 

Scenario Planning to Reshape Uncertainty

Enhance your company’s vision by identifying the warning signs in advance. Minimizing uncertainties entails learning the market to forecast and eliminate them. With the integration of the two processes, your company will possess a ‘radar’ for monitoring uncertainties in the long run. Identify factors that will not change. Uncertainty cannot be eliminated by illusory forecasting but can be reduced, and decisions can be made based on hypothetical futures.

Learning to navigate the potentialities of uncertainties through scenario planning can inevitably transform an organization’s future (Ringland, 2010).

It can give a company an edge in reacting to threats or opportunities (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). It can help a company get rid of or anticipate uncertainties (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Not to mention, scenario planning can help a company overcome previous limitations (Hussain et al., 2017). Lastly, scenario planning allows a company to decide on how to enhance areas of concern (Ramirez et al., 2017).

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures 

In an effort to decide on which scenario planning framework is most appropriate in planning for the future of the pharmaceutical sector, the above synthesis matrix was developed.

While the major header gives us the authors, the side panels contain the summary points of every author regarding scenario planning. Its aim was to categorize and sort out various perspectives offered by each source in a way that the most apt choice framework was chosen. Once the four sources were assessed, it was seen that some of the frameworks differentiated themselves from others. Firms operating in rapidly changing environments might require highly developed peripheral vision compared to firms operating in stable environments (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). In the meantime, firms who pose the correct questions should incorporate determining key variables and participating in future workshops (Godet & Roubelat, 1996).

In addition, firms that spot and learn from their past errors could potentially refrain from them in the future (Hussain et al., 2017). Finally, firms that aim for the reasonable rather than the probable might even be able to circumvent some of the future hindrances (Ramirez et al., 2017). These models can perhaps steer a firm through short-term and long-term transformations if followed appropriately. While both models do not promise complete recovery in the future, with the right choice of scenario techniques in place, a firm might be capable of directing how they respond to untoward incidents. In essence, by creating awareness of the possibilities of what could happen, leaders can start to recognize warning signs of problems. Consequently, they can plan and react accordingly (Tighe, 2019). 

Part 2: Scenario Framework for the Pharmaceutical Industry

Based on the assignment that this writer has been contracted to carry out—a decade-futures look ahead on behalf of MiracleDrugs—it is suggested that Day & Schoemaker’s framework be employed. After reading the industry discovery summary, the most effective way to gain control over uncertainty is by specifying the scope, posing the correct questions, and learning from the past.

That is, once the vision has been established, the right questions can be posed so that future thinking can start to occur (Day & Schoemaker, 2005).

Is resource allocation enough? Do we require new leadership to propel the company further? Are the workers adequately skilled? How do we learn from past failures? Where are we now?

Once the appropriate questions are posed and responded to, the scenario framework will be utilized. For any business, studying their history is an excellent learning device when appropriately applied (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). By examining the past of the pharmaceutical sector, leaders can identify the worst- and best-performing incentives. Historical learning can also be used to identify why certain incentives performed better than others. Not turning a blind eye to history assists in demonstrating a company’s trajectory and assessing their success (Tighe, 2019). Is the business expanding or declining? Has the business achieved the goals assigned to it a decade ago? Merging all this data from the scope, raising the right questions, and relying on experience will assist in defining how to plan for establishing decade goals. Good planning is needed in order to meet the future, either by enhancing what your business is doing, transforming everything, or maintaining everything the same. Because of the fast development of the pharmaceutical sector, Day & Schoemaker’s framework is advisable.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures 

Another reason for the complexities of the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical industry is what must be done to change. Identifying the gaps between the current and desired state of generic pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturers is how leaders can start discussing the gaps between the two and respond strategically to the unknown. Studies indicate that as of now, revenue for the generic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has fallen in the last five years (Kennedy, 2021). Besides falling revenue, the generic industry has been plagued with other issues (Stockman, 2021).

Some of those issues are that

“Generic drugs are a major driver of the rapidly increasing cost of drugs overall” (Kennedy, 2021, para. 7). Furthermore, most pharmaceutical companies are experiencing difficulties like price structure changes, fewer patent protections, more litigation, and so forth. For instance, the pharmaceutical supply chain in the U.S. is experiencing shortages, high costs, and unequal access to critical medicines as a result of the heavy reliance on a small number of producers to satisfy demand (Kennedy, 2021). Though there are laws and regulations guiding how the drug industry works currently, there are certain companies that might need better exposure to planning for the unknown. Finally, applying road maps within the drug industry can determine and categorize uncertainties.

Road maps are utilized in order to present and indicate the way in which the process of the supply chain functions and specifically where changes should be made. According to industry experts, there is an ongoing problem with shortages in the industry’s supply chain (Kennedy, 2021). With no other manufacturers to fill in the gaps when supplies run low, shortages remain problematic. While this is unfortunate, the question becomes, what can leaders do now to avoid shortages in the future?

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures 

By examining historical data, leaders are able to analyze the highs and lows of the supply chain and develop roadmaps to assist in determining a better solution to fix supply chain issues (Stockman, 2021). Analyzing the supply chain process assists in learning how to react to the “what ifs” and avoid potential crises. Although technology has advanced, the pharmaceutical sector still experiences persistent challenges. The supply chain keeps on fluctuating and gets worse in the time of crisis (Kennedy, 2021).

Some businesses outsource their production requirements.

This becomes an issue as well when supply chains fail to get the expected demands and need to adjust at the last minute. Road maps play a critical role in this business. It can tackle the current problems within the supply chain process and identify the precise areas of improvement that leaders need to take into account. Finally, although a scenario framework is not a solution forever, when utilized appropriately, it can guide a company through the uncertainties. With contemplation regarding what the future will bring, a company can position itself to overcome the hurdles that lie ahead. In the case of the pharmaceutical sector, using a scenario planning model to define a decade’s future might potentially help address the future supply chain challenges of most pharmaceutical firms. Additionally, road mapping and historical learning keep firms ready for the future. Nevertheless, it is the belief that Day & Schoemaker’s framework would be best suited for planning for the pharmaceutical industry’s future.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures 

Ramirez, R., Mukherjee, M., Vezzoli, S., & Maki, L. (2017). Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research.” Futures, 96, 10-20.

Ringland, G. (2010). Scenario planning: Managing for the future (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stockman, F. (2021). The generic drug industry has a dirty secret. Retrieved from 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/business/generic-drug-shortage-pharmaceuticals.html